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Determination Of Samsun Province Earthquake Risk According To Probabilistic And Deterministic ApproachesNormal access

Authors: N. Sayıl, K.H. Coban and O. Akın
Event name: 9th Congress of the Balkan Geophysical Society
Session: 4.03 Seismic Risk Analysis
Publication date: 05 November 2017
DOI: 10.3997/2214-4609.201702536
Organisations: BGS, EAGE
Language: English
Info: Extended abstract, PDF ( 1.4Mb )
Price: € 20

Summary:
In order to investigate the seismicity of Samsun district and its surroundings, probability of earthquake occurrences(R(M)) and recurrence periods (Q) estimated for 100 years by 10 years period by using Poisson model Magnitude-Frequency relationship. The earthquake intensity map and peak ground acceleration (PGA) was calculated by using empirical equations which are obtained for NAFZ (North Anatolian Fault Zone). The deterministic earthquake hazard maps were prepared using the intensity and acceleration values that MS=7.0 magnitude 20.11.1942 Tokat earthquake that can occur within the boundaries of the study area. According to results, the possibility of an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.5 >Ms >4.0 within 50 years is high and the recurrence intervals of these earthquakes are estimated to between 3.5 and 32.4 years. The probability of an earthquake Ms>7.0 is 29% for in 100 years. The results calculated from the empirical relations for this region by using Ms = 7.0 Tokat earthquake, the PGA values range from 90-150gal (~0.1g) and the intensity values are between VI-IX.


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