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Solar activity as the main factor of space weatherNormal access

Authors: V. Lozitsky and V. Efimenko
Event name: 11th International Conference on Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Condition of the Environment
Session: Modern Technologies Of Geophysical Monitoring
Publication date: 19 March 2018
DOI: 10.3997/2214-4609.201800084
Organisations: EAGE
Language: English
Info: Extended abstract, PDF ( 624.31Kb )
Price: € 20

Summary:
A characteristic feature of solar activity is its 11-year cycle. However, this is only the most obvious and intense solar activity cycle, a kind of its "pulse". A more detailed analysis shows that the spectrum of fluctuations in solar activity has about 20 less intensive but reliable cycles, including the cycles with the duration of 11.89 and 9.97 years (Tsirulnik et al., 1997). These cycles are close to the period of Jupiter’s revolution around the Sun (11.86 years) and repetition of orbital quadratures for the system "Jupiter- Saturn" (9.90 years). According to recent studies, in changes of sunspot diameters there is also a 44-year cycle (Lozitsky and Efimenko, 2017). Perhaps this cycle is present in some processes on Earth. We can assume that in addition to the influence of the Sun on Earth, there may also be external influences on both named cosmic bodies. Therefore, the available data on the cyclicity of solar activity do not allow to confidently predict solar activity in the future. In particular, there are various estimates of the level of solar activity both for the next cycle No. 25 and subsequent cycles. This issue is planned to be discussed in the course of the report.


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