Overconfidence and optimism in the oil industry: surfacing systematic biases and distortions in probabilistic practice
Event name: 80th EAGE Conference & Exhibition 2018 Workshop Programme
Session: WS15: Risk and Uncertainty in Petroleum Exploration
Publication date: 15 June 2018
Info: Presentation, PDF ( 1.1Mb )
Price: € 20
In order to hold a meaningful discussion on the accuracy, or otherwise, of our probabilistic assessments, it is necessary to have a meaningful sense of what constitutes an accurate assessment. Pragmatically, this is equivalent to understanding how we can validate probabilistic statements regarding events against their outcomes.