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Overconfidence and optimism in the oil industry: surfacing systematic biases and distortions in probabilistic practiceNormal access

Author: G. Keith
Event name: 80th EAGE Conference & Exhibition 2018 Workshop Programme
Session: WS15: Risk and Uncertainty in Petroleum Exploration
Publication date: 15 June 2018
DOI: 10.3997/2214-4609.201801955
Organisations: EAGE
Language: English
Info: Presentation, PDF ( 1.1Mb )
Price: € 20

Summary:
In order to hold a meaningful discussion on the accuracy, or otherwise, of our probabilistic assessments, it is necessary to have a meaningful sense of what constitutes an accurate assessment. Pragmatically, this is equivalent to understanding how we can validate probabilistic statements regarding events against their outcomes.


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