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Analogue play statistics for improved pre-drill risking: North Sea case studyNormal access

Author: K. Myers
Event name: 80th EAGE Conference & Exhibition 2018 Workshop Programme
Session: WS15: Risk and Uncertainty in Petroleum Exploration
Publication date: 15 June 2018
DOI: 10.3997/2214-4609.201801956
Organisations: EAGE
Language: English
Info: Presentation, PDF ( 2.4Mb )
Price: € 20

There is evidence that the industry is systematically over-estimating the commercial chance of success (CoCS) and volume especially in high risk plays. The bias in commercial risking and pre-drill volume estimation is not a new phenomenon and persists today. Analogue play statistics can help address potential bias by providing objective calibration and sense-checking of success rates and discovery sizes.

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