Addressing the causes of uncalibrated predictions & underperformance in oil & gas ventures
M. Bond and P.D. Carragher
Event name: 80th EAGE Conference & Exhibition 2018 Workshop Programme
Session: WS15: Risk and Uncertainty in Petroleum Exploration
Publication date: 15 June 2018
Info: Presentation, PDF ( 2.09Mb )
Price: € 20
Persistent biases affect the important work of estimating the range of uncertainty of oil and gas resources and reserves, the chance of success for a wildcat well, and the chance that an unconventional resource project will be successful. These biases result in chronic underperformance in the oil and gas industry as evidenced by predicted volumes that are overoptimistic; uncalibrated success rates, and poor economic results in unconventional projects.