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On the issue of predicting the activation of EGP in the Transcarpathian regionNormal access

Authors: E. Kuzmenko, T. Chepurna, L. Shtohryn, I. Chepurnyi and Ye. Matvii
Event name: 18th International Conference on Geoinformatics - Theoretical and Applied Aspects
Session: Students Programme
Publication date: 15 May 2019
DOI: 10.3997/2214-4609.201902128
Organisations: EAGE
Language: English
Info: Extended abstract, PDF ( 685.6Kb )
Price: € 20

Summary:
GIS-based prognostic information systems enable modeling of landslide and mudflow processes and effectively predict their development. The openness of such systems involves the continuous addition of spatial and temporal information, as well as taking into account new patterns of factor influence. A multistage analysis of time factors of landslide and mudflow-activity is conducted. The existence of a connection between the long-term rows of observations of flood and landslide processes has been proved. Analysis of new data on observations of solar activity and the amount of precipitation allowed us to make an assumption about the need to recalculate the previously obtained integral indicators of the probability of occurrence of landslide and mudflow phenomena. An extrapolation of the previously obtained complex integral temporal index of landslide and mudflow activity was performed by three methods: the average predictive values were calculated. It was establishe d that the beginning of the activation of dangerous gravitational processes is 2021. The highest probability of activation in 2023 was obtained.


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