A New Method of Accounting for Uncertainty and Temporal Variability in Studies of Fault Seal Capacity
C. Reilly and M. Valcarcel
Event name: Fifth International Conference on Fault and Top Seals
Session: Risk II
Publication date: 08 September 2019
Info: Extended abstract, PDF ( 995.36Kb )
Price: € 20
A new workflow is presented here combining temporal analysis of fault seal capacity with a newly developed method of determining the uncertainties associated with fault seal studies. Recognised uncertainties in the geometry of geological models and in lithological data used for fault seal calculations are combined and possible deviations due to these uncertainties are run as a Monte Carlo simulation. Results enable quantification of all possible fault seal parameters. Temporal fault seal studies utilising structural restoration techniques to examine geological model configuration, and resultant fault seal throughout the history of hydrocarbon movement in the subsurface is also carried out. Incorporating our newly developed uncertainty modelling workflow with temporal fault seal modelling greatly reduces the risk inherent in resource definition which is dependent on faults for migration/seal. A number of global datasets are utilised to highlight the efficacy of this workflow combination, with this abstract focussing on the Cape Egmont Fault, Taranaki Basin, New Zealand.